Dual-Polarization Radar Detects Severe Weather in the South

The severe weather that tore through the Southern United States during the week of January 22, 2012, provided us one of our first opportunities to see the advantages of dual-polarization weather radar in ESP:LIVE™.

Dual-polarization technology will not change standard radar products like reflectivity and velocity, but new products available with dual-pol will provide unprecedented insight into high-impact weather. Detection of giant hail, debris from damaging tornadoes, better flash flood warnings, and even identification of some winter precipitation is now possible.

A storm produced golf ball size hail just north of Colt, AR – about 40 miles west of Memphis. The Memphis radar is one of only a handful presently capable of displaying dual-polarization data.

Correlation Coefficient

Correlation Coefficient

Correlation Coefficient (abbreviated “CC”) – detects the diversity of objects that the radar detects. Lower values (highlighted in orange and yellow) that are co-located with thunderstorms can indicate the potential of hail, or hail mixed with raindrops, as in the example shown above. Correlation Coefficient can also be used to detect debris tossed about by a destructive tornado or even a flock of birds flying high above the radar.

Since the radar often detects objects such as hail well above the ground, it’s important for the meteorologist to know if the hail is melting in the sky or slamming into crops and cars before it melts.

Differential Reflectivity

Differential Reflectivity

Differential Reflectivity (abbreviated “ZDR”) – detects whether the object is shaped vertically, horizontally, or spherically. Gray and blue colors indicate that the radar is observing objects that are shaped like a sphere, while oranges and reds mean that the object has a horizontal shape. Meteorologists already know liquid water droplets have a greater horizontal shape, meaning that the hail is melting in the sky or mixed with raindrops, as seen on the right-hand side of the spotlight. However, on the left hand side, dry hail is falling because it appears to be “tumbling” to the radar. This tumbling suggests a spherical shape, meaning the dry hail is likely to make it to the ground without melting. Spotters reported hailstones of golf balls to the north and west of Colt, confirming what we see in the dual-polarization data!

You may ask if an easy-to-use product has been developed that can look at these seemingly complex variables to tell us the most likely type of precipitation falling from the sky. Indeed, there is.

Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm

Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm

Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm (abbreviated “HCA”) – detects the most likely type of object falling from the sky. It’s not always precipitation (but it usually is). Our analysis of the other dual-polarization products is backed up with what we see in the HCA. Areas of red show where the radar is detecting hail, while dark green indicates heavy rain. Hard-core meteorologists will also examine other dual-polarization radar moments, standard radar products (such as reflectivity and velocity), along with their experience and understanding of the environment that day to provide the best possible estimate of what’s actually happening. With dual-polarization capability comes another set of tools that will take months, if not years, of practice to fully utilize.

Specific Differential Phase

Specific Differential Phase

Standard Reflectivity

Specific Differential Phase (abbreviated “KDP”) – left image on the following page – detects a heavy rain shaft associated with thunderstorms moving through Eastern North Carolina. Standard reflectivity (on the right) shows lots of yellows and oranges, which might indicate heavy rain, but sometimes can indicate hail or even melting snowflakes. KDP can only detect the concentration of water droplets, meaning that hail contamination and bright-banding won’t fool meteorologists into believing there’s heavy rain falling, when there really isn’t. In this case, high KDP is detected – giving meteorologists absolute certainty that heavy rain is occurring. KDP will be a powerful tool for detecting the potential for flash flooding.

Your Quick Guide to Dual-Polarization Products

Product	Level 2 or Level 3	Level 2 Resolution	Level 3 Resolution
Correlation Coefficient	Both	0.5 deg x 250 m	1.0 deg x 250 m
Differential Reflectivity	Both	0.5 deg x 250 m	1.0 deg x 250 m
Differential Phase	Level 2 Only	0.5 deg x 250 m	N/A
Specific Differential Phase	Level 3 Only	N/A	1.0 deg x 250 m
Hydrometeor Classification	Level 3 Only	N/A	1.0 deg x 250 m

Multi-Screen Delivery

Ask a broadcast meteorologist about hot “multi-screen” trends and they’ll probably shrug and tell you that they have been doing it for years. That’s because weather has always been in the vanguard that helps prove the viability of new screens. If consumer electronics vendors create a new viewing device, you can be sure that we’ve been delivering forecasts and alerts from the time it hits the market. TV, PCs, and PDAs (remember those?) or more recently tablets, smartphones, and connected TVs—they all got their content streams started with weather.

Of course, that shrug doesn’t only reflect our hipster, meteorologist coolness toward new technology. We also have come to learn that “more screens” usually means “more work.” While supporting new platforms is inevitable for your TV station-cum-multi-screen media company, it is unlikely that you are being given more resources with which to serve them.

So why should you be excited about today’s multi-screen conversation? Because it is full of opportunity.

As succeeding waves of multi-screen excitement break, media company executives find themselves scratching their heads and wondering “where is the money?”

Tell them it is in the weather.

Your forecasts and alerts are a perfect medium for monetization. Branded weather products can smooth the transition by providing high-value, ready content for these new distribution channels. And unlike seasonal sports, TV clips and cute pet videos, the weather has day-in, day-out, unflagging persistence and relevance for your audience. Consumers are looking to other screens for information that impacts their daily lives. And when weather turns dangerous, the TV may not be the first place they look. Alerting across multiple platforms is the way weather consumers expect to find out about severe weather. The trust consumers put into one screen directly impacts reliance on your others and therefore your company’s ability to grown in the future.

As for the perceived increased workload in a multi-screen world? Make your weather systems do more for you. It is vital to eliminate duplicate, discrete processes in the forecast creation and publication process. Extra steps are opportunities for error. There is more than efficiency at stake—viewers will see any inconsistency in your output and penalize you for it. A properly implemented weather solution is a central hub that enables you to build your forecast once and then automatically format and distribute it to any screen, whether it’s a web site, mobile device, or broadcast graphic.

Making multi-screen into more than a costly experiment is a serious challenge for media companies. So, go ahead and shrug your shoulders, but, make it a knowing shrug and show them that weather means multi-screen business.

Can insurers control the weather?

2011 was a shocking year for insurers. Consider the following from the Insurance Information Institute:

Insured catastrophe losses in the United States totaled $35.9 billion in 2011, well above the 2000 to 2010 average of $23.8 billion (in 2011 dollars) according to figures from Munich Re. Thunderstorms, including tornado events, were the costliest type of natural disaster in 2011, based on insured losses. Insured losses from thunderstorms/tornadoes at over $25 billion, were more than double the previous record. It was also the deadliest thunderstorm season in over 75 years, with 552 direct fatalities. (http://www.iii.org/facts_statistics/catastrophes-us.html)

Science fiction aside, what can insurers do about the weather?

Reacting to weather is nothing new for insurance companies and, perhaps, that is part of the problem. That is why we are working with insurers to implement a change of perspective—a more proactive approach that puts the insurer in control of their weather peril risk. Technology and tools exist that enable insurers to be ahead of the storms, so while we can’t change the weather, we can predict it and act on that data.

Our media company clients have been sending alerts to audiences for years showing specifically that “a thunderstorm will reach the street where your house is in 11 minutes.” Broadcasters zoom in to individual city blocks to pinpoint weather events and impacts.

We can take that level of detail, combine it with knowledge of the location of policy holders, and create information tools that are predictive, actionable, and that can impact an insurer’s loss ratios and brand image. For example:

1. Mitigate claims risk – using relevant forecast tools and severe weather alert systems along with multiple paths of instant communication including SMS, mobile apps, web sites, etc. makes it possible for insurers to spur policy holders to action.  Pulling cars into garages, locking down construction equipment, and more could all help reduce the number and severity of claims.
2. Enhance relationships with policy holders—when an insurer proactively helps a policy holder, the consumer is likely to feel they are getting more value for their dollar. It is good to know one is covered for loss. It is even better to avoid the pain and inconvenience of loss in the first place.
3. Fraud protection—a bad situation is made worse when people try to take advantage of weather damage. Weather prediction and analysis means insurers can get assessment teams on the ground more quickly, reducing the window of opportunity for fraud.

There is clear evidence that 2012 is shaping up to be full of costly weather events. We may not yet have the power to change the weather, but smart insurers can take action to eliminate some of the surprise and unnecessary cost associated with severe weather.  If you want to take a first step, consider joining us for a webinar on February 29. Our meteorologists will share their outlook for the 2012 storm season and we’ll take a look at some of the technologies and techniques that can help you prepare for and manage risk.

What Does It All Mean?

What is today’s consumer of weather information looking for from their media companies? Accuracy is an obvious answer and always high on the list. A compelling story helps. A witty, dashing meteorologist never hurts, of course.

But, what really matters to your audience is that you answer for them, “How will the weather affect me?” The broadcast meteorologist has, perhaps, always know this intuitively, admonishing the audience to “bundle up out there,” or “don’t forget the umbrella.” Weather graphics–dynamic maps, forecast grids, etc.–have become increasingly sophisticated in part to address the question.

Today’s viewer expects more than a 3D radar map. In fact, the map is, in some regards, only a half way marker on the road to the desired answer. The audience member wants to know “how long will my commute be due to the weather?” “Is there a better route to take?” “Do I have enough time to secure the garbage can lids before that thunderstorm hits?” “Can I get a run in this afternoon at 3pm?”

What is wanted is interpretation delivered at a very granular and personalized level.

This is even more important in an always connected, multi-screen landscape in which the viewer is looking for up-to-the-minute, actionable information throughout the day that will affect what they do at that moment, the decisions they make for later in the day, and the plans they formulate for the future. The consumption of meteorology information is divorced from the time and place limits of a decade ago.

In this setting, we need to ask ourselves what we need to do differently. Do readings and a forecast from the airport 30 miles away really address the viewer’s questions about what is happening outside their front door? Probably not. When we therefore talk about 1km resolution weather data, we aren’t merely flexing technical muscles; this hyper-local approach moves the meteorologist and the media company closer to the individual user, giving them personalized, actionable information.

We also need to look at what we do with the data we have at hand. Real-time traffic information and weather forecasts are two important data points that are usually presented as distinct. Combining the two, however, creates unique, compelling and, above all, interpreted information that tells the viewer what they can expect on their route to work, suggests a better time to leave, and can have a meaningful impact on that viewer’s life.

Interpreted data products that combine weather analysis with intelligence of particular lifestyles give the audience an instantly understandable view of how the weather will impact them–the skier, the soccer mom, and the sales rep heading out to visit a client will all see things differently.

Accurate data and great presentation will ensure that eyeballs turn toward you. Interpretation is what will set you apart.

Swiss Re reports 2011 sees record catastrophe–related insurance losses

Swiss Re’s sigma team released preliminary loss estimates yesterday for 2011, and while the earthquake and tsunami in Japan was by far the largest single catastrophe in 2011, 5 of the top 10 loss events were related to severe storms in the United States. In addition to the Alabama and Joplin tornadoes, three other storm outbreaks lead to nearly $19 billion dollars in losses.

Read more from Swiss Re here.

Storytelling

Storytelling–the ability to share events, information and emotion with others–is one of mankind’s most ancient and revered art forms. What began thousands of years ago with words spoken around the fire has evolved over millenia to become the variety of content delivered by today’s media companies. While on the surface much has changed, the core requirements of good storytelling remain unchanged. Storytellers are expected to be compelling, to move us, drive us to act, elicit responses.

Those fundamental precepts are what have led to today’s broadcast weather system. There we have created a 3D environment where the meteorologist–our storyteller–can seamlessly interact with on-screen elements using MagicTRAK™ technology. With real-time, renderless playback and multiple lighting sources, textures and data mapping to 3D objects, the storyteller is supported by a visual presentation that transports the viewer, fires their imagination and impacts the way people live their lives. Most significant is the interactivity–maps that can be drilled down to the local level, on the fly graphics switching for the presenter–it is a fully fledged storytelling environment that transports the presenter and the viewer. There is a relationship between the storyteller and their tools.

In contrast, most other locally produced content–news, sports, talk–is some variation on a studio set, people talking, some over the shoulder graphics or crawls, and jumps to live or recorded video. There is no interactivity between the storyteller and the adjacent imagery seen by viewer. Graphics and video tend to serve as adornment for the story. The storyteller has no control over his assistants.

So we asked, why the divide in storytelling approaches? Why are we setting one bar for weather and another for other productions? And why are stations letting the graphics and interactive power of their weather system sit idle when its core technology and functionality could be put to work.

It turns out that a solution was in front of us all the time. We knew anecdotally that some customers around the world had tapped into their Fusion weather systems to create magazine-style entertainment programs. We discovered that the same tools and technology that make for great weather presentation can also contribute to news, sports and entertainment programs, bringing heightened interactivity to almost any local productions. Your weather system is not just a solid foundation for studio production, it brings a level of storytelling power and flexibility that is typically attainable only with the big budgets of major channels and networks.

Moreover, the storytelling power inherent in the weather system is overlooked while money is being spent on systems to support election programming, sports, etc. – systems that can’t also deliver weather. By making more extensive use of your weather system it becomes an even better value proposition. The money budgeted for other programming can share the cost of one resource.

There is no substitute for having good storytellers, but we can give them tools to make the story more compelling.

– Bill Boss, Vice President